Russia has one of the largest and most powerful armed forces in the world, but that has not been apparent in its initial invasion of Ukraine. Many military analysts in the West have been surprised by its performance on the battlefield so far, with one describing it as "dismal".
Its military advances appear to have largely stalled and some now question whether it can recover from the losses it has suffered. This week, a senior Nato military official told the BBC, "the Russians clearly have not achieved their goals and probably will not at the end of the day". So what has gone wrong? I have spoken to senior Western military officers and intelligence officials, about the mistakes Russia has made.Russia's first blunder was underestimating the resistance's strength and the capability of Ukraine's own smaller armed forces. Russia spends more than $60 billion on defense each year, whilst Ukraine spends little over $4 billion.
Simultaneously, Russia, like many nations, appears to have overstated its own military capabilities. President Putin had started on a massive military modernization program, and he, too, may have believed his own propaganda.According to a senior British military official, Russia's massive nuclear arsenal and experimentation, which included the development of new weapons such as hypersonic missiles, had consumed much of the country's investment. The T-14 Armata, Russia's most modern tank, is said to be the most advanced in the world. However, while it was visible at Moscow's Victory Day Parade on Red Square, it was not seen in battle. T-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and rocket launchers make up the majority of Russia's military hardware.
Russia enjoyed a clear air advantage at the start of the invasion, with its combat aircraft outnumbering Ukraine's air force by more than three to one. Most military experts predicted that the invading force would acquire air superiority immediately, but this has not happened. Ukraine's air defenses continue to work well, restricting Russia's maneuverability.
Moscow may possibly have believed that its special forces would play a key role in delivering a swift and decisive hit.
Russia believed it could send lighter spearhead units like the Spetsnatz and VDV paratroopers "to remove a small number of defenders and that would be it," a senior Western intelligence official told the BBC. However, their helicopter attack on Hostomel Airport, just outside Kyiv, was resisted in the first few days, denying Russia access to an airbridge to transport troops, equipment, and supplies.Instead, Russia has been forced to rely primarily on road transportation to deliver its supplies. This has resulted in traffic jams and choke places, making Ukrainian forces obvious targets for ambush. Some heavy armour has gone off road only to become trapped in mud, adding to the appearance of an army that has "bogged down."
Meanwhile, satellites have revealed that Russia's vast armoured column from the north has failed to envelop Kyiv. The most substantial gains have been made in the south, where it has been able to resupply its men through rail lines. President Putin's forces have "lost the momentum," according to UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, according to the BBC.
"They're trapped, and they're losing a lot of people slowly but steadily."Morale is low because of the losses.
For this invasion, Russia had gathered a force of approximately 190,000 troops, the majority of whom had already been committed to the conflict. However, around 10% of their troops has already been lost. The scale of Russian and Ukrainian losses is unknown. Ukraine claims to have killed 14,000 Russian troops, however the United States believes the number is likely half that.
There is also indications of falling Russian fighter morale, according to Western officials, with one claiming it is "very, very, low." Another stated the troops were "cold, exhausted, and hungry" after waiting weeks in the snow in Belarus and Russia before being given the order to invade.
To make up for its losses, Russia has already had to hunt for more troops, including bringing in reserve units from as far as the country's east and Armenia. Foreign troops from Syria, as well as mercenaries from the country's clandestine Wagner group, are also "very likely" to join the conflict, according to Western diplomats. This, according to a senior Nato military official, is a portent of greater things to come.Logistics and supply chain management
Russia has had a difficult time with the fundamentals. Amateurs discuss tactics, while professionals focus on logistics, according to an old military adage. There's evidence that Russia hasn't given it the attention it deserves. Fuel, food, and ammo for armoured columns had run out. Broken down vehicles have been abandoned and towed away by Ukrainian tractors.
Russia may possibly be running low on some weapons, according to Western officials. It has previously shot 850 to 900 long-range precision weapons, including cruise missiles, which are more difficult to replace than unguided weapons. Russia has sought China to help with some of the issues, according to US officials.
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