The question of whether Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) will switch parties hasn't gone away, and it doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon.
The newest chapter in the saga is a new book by Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin of the New York Times. According to the two, Manchin had dinner with some Senate Republicans in early 2021, and in response to their requests for him to join them, he suggested that he may do so if it weren't for Mitch McConnell.
As stated in the book:
[Senate No. 2 John]: You're not required to join our caucus. He was told by Thune. Simply become an independent and join us in caucus.
[Senate No. 2 John]: You're not required to join our caucus. He was told by Thune. Simply become an independent and join us in caucus.
Manchin would likely be rewarded for taking such a step, according to Thune: "You could write your own ticket," the South Dakotan said. We'll help you generate money for your campaign if you chair a committee.
Manchin would likely be rewarded for taking such a step, according to Thune: "You could write your own ticket," the South Dakotan said. We'll help you generate money for your campaign if you chair a committee.
Manchin listened to them and responded in a politically astute manner to Thune.
Manchin listened to them and responded in a politically astute manner to Thune.
If you were the leader, John, he said, I would do it.
If you were the leader, John, he said, I would do it.
It wasn't a hard nay, but Manchin wasn't about to reinstall Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader.
It wasn't a hard nay, but Manchin wasn't about to reinstall Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader.
Manchin has responded to the article, implying that his answer was less serious than it seems on the website.
"Not that I recall-" Manchin said to CNN's Morgan Rimmer before altering gears and saying, "No, we talk all the time, we have dinners together, and all that." No, they're always joking around."Thune also hinted that the chat wasn't entirely serious, stating that he took Manchin's remark in "good humor," adding, "A lot of those are obviously light-spirited conversations."
The point is, if you envision the scene and immerse yourself in it, that could be true. You've got a group of Republican senators who would love for Manchin to switch parties — because it would reclaim control of the Senate's 50-50 split — but who also realize it's a long chance for the same reason. So you try to figure it out by talking about topics in a humorous manner, and Manchin responds with a somewhat noncommittal, cheerful comment, which he uses to complement someone he likes. ("John Thune is a good friend of mine and the most decent human being," Manchin added on Thursday.
Even yet, Democrats should probably be concerned. This has come up several times for a reason, and we're finding that Manchin may have looked into it a little more seriously than some would want — or at the very least, hasn't fully dismissed it.
Mother Jones reported in October that Manchin was telling associates that if Democrats didn't cut their $3.5 trillion spending bill in half, he was considering becoming a "American Independent." Manchin responded to the allegation with some harsh language, essentially labeling it bullshit. "Guys, I have no control over rumors," he remarked. "There is no control over gossip."
But the next day, Manchin admitted that he had pondered becoming an independent – in order to support Democrats, according to him. If his reputation as a moderate West Virginia Democrat was causing problems for his party, he said he offered to do so but would still caucus with Democrats.
People close to Manchin told Axios in December that if he did switch parties, it would be to become a Democratic-leaning independent rather than a Republican.
What the new book proves is that Manchin is eager to hear this, and he's not precisely saying "no" — which, if you're him, is the best political strategy. Manchin would be foolish not to consider it in some form, since it offers him leverage over a party whose activists have attempted to turn him into Public Enemy No. 1 in order to sabotage President Biden's and the left's agenda. (Rather than vice versa, those individuals should realize how much Manchin needs them.) In this situation, the potential of getting rewarded by his new political party may be enticing – not to mention difficult, and perhaps unwise, to shut down completely. He also has the option of switching parties if he becomes concerned about losing reelection as a Democrat in a state where Donald Trump won by nearly 40 points.
What Manchin says today is, in some respects, irrelevant. He's not going to come out and say, "Yeah, I'm seriously thinking about this," unless it happens or gets very close.
Given the threat he faced in his approaching race, Democrats were going all out in March 2009 to persuade Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) to switch sides. Specter, on the other hand, announced he would run as a Republican, while former Democratic Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell — a contemporary of Thune — implied Specter wasn't interested in switching parties, saying the senator was "bound and determined to stay a Republican." At the time, Specter told me that the only other option he could think of was to become an independent who nevertheless caucused with Republicans. His office was shocked that I had considered even that watered-down party swap as a serious possibility when I wrote about it.
Specter became a Democrat a little over a month later.
You're probably about to do it the instant you declare you're really thinking about it. That was certainly the case in 2001 with James M. Jeffords.
If there's one thing Democrats can take away from this excerpt from the book, it's that it shows that, to the extent Manchin has taken this decision seriously, it'll be less likely with McConnell in charge. For the time being, there's no indication that McConnell will relinquish control of the Republican Party. However, if and when Manchin is no longer in a position to give McConnell the majority by jumping ship, such as if Republicans reclaim the Senate in November, the dynamic might shift.
Regardless, Manchin is in command, as he is well aware.
[zombify_post]
0 Comments