What is the best way to get out of Russia?" Within a week after the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Google searches for this topic in Russian hit a 10-year high within the country.
Russians are looking for a way out in the face of a bleak future in a country ripped apart by isolation, censorship, and belligerence, from Moscow to the Siberian oil capital of Novosibirsk, and from the intellectual center of St. Petersburg to the nuclear submarine base of Murmansk.
Search data, immigration stats, and airline data, as well as conversations with experts, activists, and people inside Russia, shed light on how people who can no longer live in Vladimir Putin's Russia are attempting to emigrate amid the president's war in Ukraine and political crackdown at home.
Between mid-February and early March, Russians' searches on Google for "emigration" doubled. The number of searches for "travel visa" has nearly doubled, and the number of searches for a Russian counterpart of "political asylum" has increased by more than five-fold.
Australia, Turkey, and Israel were among the most popular emigration destinations in the last 30 days, among Russia-friendly Serbia and Armenia, as well as Georgia, which was invaded by Russian soldiers in 2008.It's difficult to say how many Russians have left or could leave the nation. Financial restraints, soaring travel fees, and limited exit routes following a slew of aircraft cancellations threaten to trap individuals who have had enough of Putin's Russia.
"Everything changed on February 24, our lives were divided into before and after," Veronica, a 26-year-old digital marketer in Moscow, said. To safeguard her identity, she used a fictitious name.
She didn't want to make a hasty decision after seeing her friends and acquaintances pack their belongings, break rental agreements, and "leave for Yerevan, Tbilisi, and Istanbul, together with their pets," just days after learning of Russia's invasion on Ukraine.
Instead, she attended anti-war demonstrations in Moscow.Veronica, on the other hand, began to see that the situation was deteriorating in the beginning of March. "The cops began removing activists from their flats and removing people from the train," she said CNN, adding that the cops also came to her parents' house in Siberia to frighten her.
In early March, Russia introduced new legislation that allows people to be sentenced to up to 15 years in prison if they post or share incorrect information about the war. Even using the word 'war' was declared illegal, according to Veronica.
The attitude of the general Russian public, she believes, who "accept TV misinformation," was the final straw for her. According to a recent independent poll, 58% of Russians favor their country's military activities in Ukraine, while only 17% believe Russia started the war with Ukraine."I was screaming that it was time for us to protest, go to demonstrations, write deputies complaints — instead, people went shopping on IKEA's last working day," Veronica recalled. "I don't want to live with folks who crushed my heart," she says.
Veronica and her companion embarked on a perilous journey to get out of Russia. She told CNN, "It doesn't matter where we go, we just want to get away."Putin called Russians who oppose him "traitors" in a recent address, calling their departure a "necessary self-purification of society [that] can only enhance our country."
"Any people, especially the Russian people, will always be able to discern true patriots from filth and traitors, and simply spit them out like a gnat that unintentionally flew into their jaws, spit them out on the sidewalk," Russian President Vladimir Putin stated.
According to Egor Kuroptev, director of the Free Russia Foundation in Georgia, the migration of activists, human rights defenders, and political leaders from Russia is a significant and evident trend.
"A dictator has taken over the country. The media is being suffocated. Facebook and Instagram are among the social media sites that have been disabled. New repressions against activists are being implemented "According to CNN, those who remain are now in danger.Some Russians attempt to flee for a variety of reasons, including political repression. Furthermore, according to Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at Carnegie Moscow Center, some families do not believe the situation inside the country will change, are anxious about their boys being conscripted into the army, or want their children to have a Western education.
Nikolai is only 16 years old and is being recognized under a pseudonym for his safety. His parents made the painful decision to move him to Tbilisi, Georgia, in early March, to join his older brothers who had already arrived. They want him to seek political asylum in Europe at a later date.
"All of my friends and I went to demonstrate against the war in the early days of the war, and hundreds of people were jailed," Nikolai told CNN. "Police stop people on the street, people who are just walking or going to the store, and they ask to view their phones, Telegram, and social media, and then they take them and detain them," he said.Nikolai's mother waited nearly a week for the conflict to calm down, then on March 2, she told him to take a Covid-19 test and bought him a one-way ticket to Yerevan, Armenia, for the next day. "It wasn't like, 'Let's go immediately,'" he added. From there, he and other passengers shared a taxi to Tbilisi.
"When the war broke out, so many people came here," he told CNN, adding that he has run into acquaintances he had no idea were in the Georgian capital. "When you go shopping for dinner, you hear Russian language and see Russian faces as you stroll through the supermarket or a store. Everywhere, in cafes. For Georgians, it's a brand-new reality."According to Georgian interior minister Vakhtang Gomelauri, approximately 30,400 Russians invaded Georgia between the start of the war and March 16, while over 17,800 fled, leaving more over 12,600 in the nation at the time.
According to him, there are about 14 times as many Russian migrants this year than there were in the same period last year before the Covid-19 outbreak. Furthermore, according to Gomelauri, nearly ten times as many Belarusians have visited Georgia since the war began as in 2019, when tourism was still high.Georgia is one of only a few nations that is both economical and willing to accept fleeing Russians without requiring them to go through onerous visa formalities. Post-Soviet nations like Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan are also viable alternatives. Those who can afford it visit places such as Turkey, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Mexico, which are all popular holiday destinations.
Since Russia's invasion in 2008, there have been no direct flights to Georgia. However, CNN's review of Flightradar24 data found a significant rise in daily flights from Russian cities in the first two weeks of the war for a number of other destinations.
On March 6, as many as 34 flights left Russia for Armenia, a country with a population of less than three million people, an increase of over a third above the winter average. Kazakhstan and Israel have seen a 50 percent increase in daily flights. An average of one, three, and four new flights per day have been added to Turkey, Uzbekistan, and the UAE, respectively.
It's unclear how many people who flew directly to neighboring nations would stay there, and how many would try to travel to Europe, the United States, or other Western countries.While 37 countries banned flights from Russia within days of its invasion of Ukraine, a few destinations saw an uptick in flight traffic. At the outset of the war, up to five extra aircraft per day were leaving for Armenia.In the early days of the war, those who were quick enough (and had the necessary Schengen visas) hopped on the last planes heading towards the European Union (EU). In the days leading up to the airspace closure, data from Flightradar24 shows an increase in flights to numerous European nations, including Cyprus, Spain, Finland, and Hungary.
However, the alternatives are rapidly dwindling, with many of the remaining routes unable to operate due to carriers' inability to acquire insurance or airplane leases as a result of the sanctions. In mid-March, airlines such as Kazakh airline Air Astana and Turkish Airlines, which are both key prospective destinations for Russians, halted all operations with Russia.
According to Flightradar24 statistics, over 210 airlines flew internationally in Russia during the winter months prior to the war, but by early March, that number had decreased to just under 90. According to data from early March, flight operators only fly to around a third of international airports that were previously connected to Russia.Veronica and her boyfriend have already paid 260,000 rubles (about $2,500) on tickets for flights that have been canceled but not yet returned, according to Veronica.
"We initially booked flights to Yerevan with the Russian airline s7 for March 5, but the flight was canceled. Then, on March 8, we purchased tickets to Yerevan with the Russian airline Aeroflot, but that trip was also canceled. Following that, we purchased a flight to Istanbul from the Turkish airline Pegasus, which was subsequently canceled "CNN was informed.
Land border crossings are also difficult because, with a few exceptions, Russia banned its nationals from leaving the country by land in 2020, ostensibly owing to the coronavirus outbreak."It's nearly impossible to get out of the country now," Veronica remarked. "We can't afford aircraft tickets even if they exist. We're scared to death."Arshak Makichyan and Apollinaria Oleinikova, a married activist couple based in Moscow, also struggled to escape. CNN was informed: "People are flocking to Armenia to acquire plane tickets. The cost of tickets has increased fivefold since the invasion. This is unaffordable for many people."
Continued Oleinikova: "The bus and train are two choices for getting out. Getting a visa is becoming extremely complicated. You must get vaccinated, but only the Russian vaccination is available here. Currency can't be bought. As a result, there are significant obstacles."
The Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine, developed by Russia, is widely used in many nations and has been given to millions of individuals around the world, although the World Health Organization has not yet certified it. For individuals who have already had it, this makes travel to many EU nations and the United States more more difficult.As fleeing Russia becomes more expensive, it is clear that only the wealthy, educated, and well-paid can afford to go. That is primarily the tech class in Russia.
In the months leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, some international IT companies were evacuating staff, fearful of reputational and financial damage. Most IT employees, particularly freelancers, have the benefit of being able to work from anywhere with just a bank account and a work permit.
Several social media groups formed within days of the invasion, as Russian and Belarussian colleagues and dissidents traded information on possible escape routes.
One of the dozens of relocation-related Facebook groups has over 100,000 members, with nearly half of them checking in on a daily basis. Thousands of people have joined groups dedicated to moving to certain countries, such as Armenia, Georgia, and EU countries, as well as IT specialists' groups that discuss opportunities and how to get work overseas.After President Alexander Lukashenko enabled Russian soldiers to use Belarus as a springboard for attacking Ukraine, one IT specialist, 32-year-old Vasiliy (also designated by a pseudonym for his protection), left Belarus.
"I selected Georgia since it does not require a visa, and it allows you to register as a freelancer, open a bank account, and collect your salary there," he told CNN.
"I also feel comfortable in Georgia because so many of my friends have relocated here — Tbilisi has become a mini-Minsk." However, he does not expect that all of them will stay in Georgia, as he has observed that many use the country as a transit zone before attempting to obtain a visa to enter the EU.
However, the age and status of individuals fleeing Russia have sparked concerns about the country's future.
"It's a luxury to leave Russia," Anna, a 23-year-old Moscow native who now lives in Georgia, said. "There is a flood of brilliant, educated, compassionate, and empathic people [from] Russia coming to the United States."
The expulsion of Russian dissidents may make it even more difficult for any reform to take root in society in the months and years ahead.The Russian president isn't likely to be concerned. "Putin doesn't care about brain drain; he just cares about his dictatorship," said Kuroptev, a Georgian analyst at the Free Russia Foundation. "Getting rid of dissenters and making everyone mute and afraid is advantageous to him."
"He [Putin] doesn't understand that the individuals who are going right now are the best people in Russia," Oleinikova, an 18-year-old who is also attempting to flee her homeland, remarked.
"Scientists, journalists, and IT professionals make up this group. Those are the wisest individuals in the room, and they're all going because it's too hazardous to be here "CNN was informed.
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