This year's race for control of the Senate, which is evenly balanced, boils down to "candidates," where the Democrats have an advantage, against "climate," which could be fatal for them.
Democrats have stronger candidates, or the Republican standard bearer is more problematic, as the fall field for a half dozen Senate races that will determine the majority next year begins to take shape. With soaring inflation, rising gas prices, and President Biden's dismal approval ratings — as well as the party in power's history of midterm losses – superior candidates may not matter all that much.Republicans appear to be extremely certain to retake the House, where the Democrats currently enjoy a five-seat advantage. The GOP's advantage in gerrymandered redistricting alone compensates for the gap.
Four Democratic-held Senate seats are up for grabs.
Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire got a break when popular Governor Chris Sununu chose not to run.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada is up against Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt.
Raphael Warnock, the pastor of Martin Luther King's church in Georgia, has proven to be an excellent Senator and fund-raiser; his opponent, former Georgia football great Herschel Walker, has been embroiled in personal controversies, shows little understanding of issues, and has been caught in lying. The race remains still tight.
Mark Kelly of Arizona has also created a name for himself as a successful fundraiser. None of his Republican opponents — the GOP primary is Aug. 2 — would be mistaken for the late Senator John McCain. One portrayed himself as a savior in an Easter advertisement; another suggested banning contraception; and the present Attorney General, bowing to Trump, continues to peddle the disproven accusation of voter fraud in 2020.Democrats will need to win a pair of Republican-held districts if one or two of these seats are lost.
Wisconsin's Ron Johnson, whose poll ratings are dismal, is one Republican incumbent in serious trouble. Will Democrats be able to field a more appealing challenger on Aug. 9?
Ohio's Rep. Tim Ryan and North Carolina's former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley are both strong Democratic contenders in states that voted for Trump: Ohio and North Carolina, respectively. J.D. Vance, the GOP nominee in Ohio, went from being a Trump critic to a Trump supporter; on Ukraine, he claimed Biden was seeking a fight with Putin because the Russian didn't "believe in transgender rights." Republican candidate Rep. Ted Budd, a gun shop owner from North Carolina, has endorsed Republican Senate campaign chair Rick Scott's economic proposal, which would raise taxes on some lower- and middle-income people and sunset Social Security and Medicare every five years.
Conditions and the GOP's normal advantage in off-year elections in these two states could cancel out the Democratic advantage in candidates.
Any forecast is impossible in Pennsylvania due to the disarray. Two Republicans, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor, and David McCormick, a hedge fund tycoon, were almost deadlocked in the primary and now face a difficult recount; legal wranglings might drag on for weeks, if not months. A similar situation existed on the Democratic side in 1964, which lasted until late August; in a year when President Lyndon B. Johnson won the state by a landslide, Republicans barely held the Senate seat.
Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a maverick Democrat, won a landslide primary victory; nevertheless, he suffered a stroke four days before the election, and his campaign has been tight-lipped about his health.
With the current redistricting, the Democrats' limited chances of keeping their House majority vanished. The state courts threw down a Democratic gerrymandering in New York, but a Republican gerrymandering in Ohio got away, thanks in part to a Democratic legal error.
According to David Wasserman of the Cook Report, a Congressional election specialist, the result is a "swing of seven or eight seats" for the Republicans, which includes a few other states. In November, according to Wasserman, the Republicans will gain 20 to 35 House seats.
Ohio has a particularly remarkable example. Republicans in Toledo gerrymandered Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur's district from a 19-point Biden victory to a Trump victory. Jason Majewski, who was present at the Capitol assault on Jan. 6, has a large painting of Donald Trump in his front yard, and believes in the wacky QAnon conspiracy theories, is suddenly a viable contender for Kaptur's seat.
The bottom line for Democrats: If inflation falls to 5% or less by October (roughly the same as wage growth) and Biden's job approval rises above the low 40s (possible only if other Democrats start talking about what he has done rather than what he hasn't done), they have a chance to reclaim the Senate with better candidates.
There isn't any room for error in this situation.
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