The "Big One," which many Californians fear, might not be what you think. (CNN)
There is no earthquake. It's also not the massive drought. Actually, the reverse is true.
a massive deluge.
According to a recent study published in Science Advances, the likelihood that a catastrophic flood will occur in California within the next 40 years has already increased by twofold. It would be unlike anything anyone alive today has ever experienced, according to experts.A megaflood is defined as "a extremely severe flood event across a broad territory that has the potential to bring catastrophic repercussions to civilization in the places impacted" by Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA and researcher on the project. According to him, a megaflood occurs over a considerably larger area, such as the entire state of California, and is comparable to the 1,000-year flash flood episodes that occurred this summer in the St. Louis region and Kentucky.
These enormous floods may have historically occurred in California once in a lifetime, according to scientists, turning the state's lowlands into a "great inland sea." However, according to experts, climate change is making these catastrophic calamities more likely to happen every 25 to 50 years.Flash floods are more common as a result of significant rain events being amplified by climate change, as has been seen this summer in Eastern Kentucky, St. Louis, and even Death Valley National Park in California.
Although severe floods from air rivers have already occurred in California, which is inherently vulnerable to them, climate change is upping the ante, and millions of people may be affected.According to the study, atmospheric rivers could start to run consecutively for days on end, as depicted in this animation. This loop, created by one of the study's authors, Xingying Huang, shows the movement of water vapor and probable precipitation accumulation at particular time intervals over the 30-day scenario.According to the study's authors, the Central Valley of California, which includes Sacramento, Fresno, and Bakersfield, will experience the most harm. According to the US Geological Survey, the Central Valley, which is about the same size as Vermont and Massachusetts put together, generates 25% of the country's food supply.
According to the study, a flood large enough to cover this valley may be the most expensive geophysical disaster ever, causing losses of up to $1 trillion and wreaking havoc on the state's lowland regions, including Los Angeles and Orange counties.
That would cost more than five times what Hurricane Katrina, the most expensive disaster in US history, did.
The study concluded that "such a flood catastrophe in contemporary California would likely exceed by a wide margin the effects from a big magnitude earthquake."This investigation is the first of three phases looking into the effects of a potential megaflood in California. In two to three years, the release of the following two phases is anticipated.
In the end, Swain added, "one of our aims is not just to scientifically understand these catastrophes, but also to assist California prepare for them." It's more a matter of when the megaflood happens than if it will.It's been done before. Scientists forewarn that it will take a worse turn next time.
Following a drought spell that had left the West barren for decades, a powerful sequence of atmospheric rivers flooded the Golden State over 150 years ago, triggering one of the most extraordinary floods in history.
Cities were destroyed in a matter of minutes.According to the study, a historic megaflood in the winter of 1861–1862 turned the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys into a "temporary but huge inland sea." For weeks, up to 30 feet of water in some places destroyed cities, farms, and infrastructure.
Sacramento, the brand-new state capital at the time, spent months beneath 10 feet of water that was packed with garbage.
When the Sierra Nevada received over 15 feet of snow in December 1861, the calamity got underway. For the next 43 days, warm rain from recurrent air rivers poured into the valleys and down the sides of mountains.
One-third of the state's property was destroyed, 4,000 people perished, 2,500 animals perished or went hungry, and one in every eight dwellings was completely devastated by floodwaters.
Additionally, one-fourth of California's economy was destroyed, culminating in a bankruptcy for the entire state.
A similar megaflood, but one that is worse and more frequent, will occur again, according to Swain.The study warns that although though the danger of a megaflood scenario from 1862 has already increased due to climate change, future warming would probably result in even steeper risk rises.
According to Swain, many modern megacities with millions of inhabitants are constructed immediately on top of the remains of previous floods, putting even more people at risk.
California had a population of 500,000 in 1862. The state now has a population of over 39 million people.
"The implications would be drastically different than they were back in the 1860s when this (flood) occurs again," Swain said.
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