Joe Biden told former President Barack Obama that he will run for re-election, according to reports. What Biden says today doesn't matter. What matters in November is what is about to happen.Republicans are expected to take both the House and the Senate in just over six months. What occurs the next day will be more crucial than what happens on Election Day 2022.
REPORT: BIDEN INFORMS OBAMA THAT HE WILL RUN IN 2024
The Democrats will turn on Vice President Joe Biden on that day. It's the day when the Democratic rumor campaign about whether a soon-to-be 80-year-old man is in good enough political and cognitive health to be the man at the top of the ticket in 2024 comes to a head.
It can't be helped. Whether it takes weeks or months, the anti-Biden chorus will grow louder every day until Biden admits defeat and proclaims he will not seek re-election.
The idea that an unpopular party, fresh off a severe midterm setback, would want an unpopular, 80-year-old whose health and strength are waning to lead it into the future is nonsense. It may be polite not to discuss it among today's Democrats, but it's past time to quit pretending.
Joe Biden won't run because he has no option.Joe Biden has never been a favorite among Democratic Party members. They were, however, enthralled by Biden's ability to overcome Trump. Despite losing the first three presidential nominating contests in 2020 (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada), Biden was able to win the Democratic nomination because to the Democratic Party's strong determination to remove Trump from office.Trump is now leading Biden in recent surveys. Trump leads Biden by 6 points, according to The Hill's Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. Trump leads Biden by 4 points in the most recent presidential survey conducted by FiveThirtyEight. The Democrat Party and its leaders will be irritated as a result of their November defeat. On one hand, they are aware that both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were re-elected to the White House two years after suffering big defeats in their first midterm elections. Democrats will wonder if Biden is another Clinton (who was 50 at the time) or Obama (who was 51 at the time).
Or will he continue to be an 80-year-old man in decline who defeated Trump but now has to retire?In the presidential election of 2019, twenty-eight Democrats ran. In addition to Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, who could forget Beto O'Rourke, Michael Bloomberg, Marianne Williamson, or Andrew Yang? Given the large number of contenders, the Democratic primary discussions were spread out across two nights.
Many of these people, as well as fresh competitors (perhaps Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), will want to run as soon as November 2022 is over. They'll want to prepare how and when they'll run, who they'll hire, and which funders they'll be able to get the day after the election.
They understand that the longer Joe Biden insists on running, the more difficult it will be for the Democratic Party to put together a viable alternative. They'll move rapidly to salvage the party and the country after Election Day 2022. They'll want Biden out of the way as quickly as possible.
In December of 2018, barely one month after the midterm elections, Elizabeth Warren and Julián Castro established exploratory committees. Two months after the midterm elections, in January 2019, five other Democratic candidates announced their candidacies or exploratory committees.COVID diminishes, inflation fades, and Biden's verbal mistakes become rare, and Biden's best chance for re-election is for COVID to fade, inflation to retreat, and for Biden's verbal blunders to become rare. In the event that these things do not occur, how long will the party wait? How much longer will leaders give Biden before the whispers turn into roars?
It was a very short time.
In 2024, there's just too much on the line, including Trump's likely re-election. After losing the House and the Senate, the Democrats' challenge will become more pressing as they consider who their strongest candidates will be. Will they truly believe that Biden's deterioration is their best chance?
I believe that South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn, the kingmaker who saved Biden's 2020 primary campaign, will be the king killer this time. After Biden persists on campaigning for re-election, Clyburn, a respected senior statesman with gravitas, will persuade Biden that defeating Trump in 2020 was enough, and that now is the time for someone without Biden's baggage to lead the way. Biden, who is known for his obstinacy, will finally give in. More than 20 Democrats are expected to enter the race by Spring 2023, and the party will emerge in 2024 with a newer, younger head.
It's too early to say who will win in 2024, but Joe Biden will be a lame duck in 2023, and Democrats will be relieved.
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