At the start of 2022, France's upcoming presidential election looked set to be one of the country's most watched political races in decades.
An incumbent president standing for election for only the second time in his life; a candidate twice convicted of inciting racist and religious hatred polling in second place; another hard-right stalwart in third and the long-dominant left of French politics in disarray.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine.
With Europe's eyes fixed firmly on Russian President Vladimir Putin's bloody war, priorities have quickly shifted: Ammunition stockpiles, high stakes diplomacy and even the threat of a nuclear strike have all entered the national debate.
Campaigning has been disrupted by the crisis, and several key candidates have had to backtrack on their past support for Putin.Most polling indicates that current President Emmanuel Macron, bolstered by his international experience, is likely to win.
However, with only a few days till the election, his closest rival, Marine Le Pen, is gaining ground in the polls, implying that the election will be closer than the last time the two faced off in 2017.
France hasn't re-elected a president in 20 years, diplomacy has trumped campaigning on the president's agenda, and with the conflict driving a cost-of-living crisis, French voters aren't facing the election many predicted.
What you should know is as follows.French voters will most likely go to the polls twice to choose their new president.
On Sunday, April 10, the first round of voting pits 12 contenders against one another. These candidates were chosen for the contest after receiving support from 500 mayors and/or municipal councilors from across the country.
If no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates will face battle in a run-off two weeks later, on Sunday, April 24.
Only five of the 12 candidates have ever received more than 10% of the vote, according to IFOP polls. It's almost certain that there will be a second voting round.
This isn't France's first national election this year; in June, the country will have legislative elections.President Emmanuel Macron, who is serving his first term, has only previously run for office once, in the 2017 presidential election, and has a mixed record heading into 2022. Given the fact that no sitting French president has won re-election since Jacques Chirac in 2002, he is in a difficult position, despite being the frontrunner.
Early in his presidency, Macron, an ex-investment banker and alumnus of some of France's most prestigious schools, sparked countrywide outrage with a diesel tax, igniting the yellow vest movement, one of the country's longest-running protests in decades.
Political pundit Jean-Michel Aphatie told CNN, "The popularity rating today is essential." "There is widespread and significant anti-Emmanuel Macron sentiment."His attempts to win over Donald Trump, stop the AUKUS submarine sale, and use diplomacy to avoid conflict in Ukraine were all arguably failures on the international stage. Macron's unwavering support for an ambitious, self-governing European Union, on the other hand, has earned him international recognition and solidified his geopolitical credentials at home.
Covid-19, probably his most unexpected problem during his administration, has come to define his term. Over two years of lockdowns and mask mandates, a bungled EU vaccine rollout, and the bold move to effectively force French people to get vaccinated have sparked vocal opposition, despite the fact that most of the country has learned to live with the virus' realities and a silent majority supports the measures.
Macron has avoided debates with his opponents and has barely campaigned. While his lead in the polls has never been in jeopardy, observers say his approach has been to stay away from the political mudslinging for as long as possible in order to project himself as the most presidential of the contenders.
Macron, though, warned his supporters against complacency just a week before the first vote. "Anything is possible," he said, predicting an election upset akin to the Brexit vote.According to Etienne Girard, publisher of L'Express magazine, "French electoral logic dictates that in the second round, you must be the least disliked of the two remaining candidates."
While voters across the political spectrum vote in France's first round, many voters in the second round prefer to keep a candidate out of power than electing their opponent.
Marine Le Pen, who has been associated with the far-right in France for much of the last decade, has struggled with this.
Anti-immigrant Le Pen, now an MP in the Calais region, which has struggled to deal with migrants travelling to the UK, ran against Macron in 2017, but lost by a significant margin.Jean-Marie Le Pen, her father and a fellow far-right firebrand, lost in the second round of the election in 2002, to Jacques Chirac.
Marine Le Pen's initial election strategy aimed to gain mainstream support, which Girard refers to as "a policy of respectability."
While she remains staunchly anti-immigrant, her softening of tone on key issues such as Islam and euroskepticism, particularly since Brexit, has been largely interpreted as a bid to win over supporters beyond her far-right constituency. Despite this, the top two priorities in her platform are "ending uncontrolled immigration" and "eradicating Islamist ideas."The war in Ukraine has raised awkward concerns for Le Pen, who was a supporter of Vladimir Putin and had a photo of her visiting the Russian president on a now-deleted campaign flyer.
However, in the last weeks of the campaign, she's made the cost of living a centerpiece of her platform, pledging steps that will put "150 to 200 euros" back in each household's pocket, including a commitment to eliminate sales taxes on 100 household goods.
According to pollster Emmanuel Riviere, Le Pen is known for attracting hard-to-reach voters. "She constantly manages to captivate individuals who aren't interested in politics at all," he told CNN.
Le Pen is polling much higher now than she was in 2017. IFOP polling taken just days before the first round predicts she might win 47 percent of the vote in a runoff versus Macron in the second round.Eric Zemmour, a far-right politician, speaks to activists at a campaign event on February 5 in Lille, northern France.New boundaries have been reached.
Far-right TV pundit and author Eric Zemmour, the new boy on the block, has long been tipped as a potential presidential candidate. He has twice been imprisoned for inciting racial or religious hate because of his hardline opinions on Islam, children with non-French names, and immigration.
He has stepped up his racial rhetoric as a presidential contender, promoting the racist "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory in his speeches and vowing a "minister for re-immigration" to deport as many as 1 million persons of North African heritage from France. Immigrants are attempting to "replace" native-born French people, according to this notion.
According to IFOP polling, Zemmour was in the top three candidates until March, posing a threat to the Le Pen family's political supremacy.
According to Riviere, he openly refers to Islam as a threat to France and has drawn a more educated and affluent audience to the political extreme. His call to "defend our territory, civilisation, and culture" has resonated with some. He is well-read and a gifted orator."People believe they are being raised when they sit in front of their televisions and listen to him. And in France, a political leader is held to a high standard when it comes to doing so "Girard, who has published a biography of Zemmour, agreed.
However, he is ultimately stepping on Le Pen's toes.
"They're in direct rivalry with each other," Riviere added, "since their clash might result in one of them losing a lot of money."
Since the start of the Ukraine crisis, Zemmour's popularity has dwindled. In 2018, he boldly admitted to "dreaming" of a French Putin.
Zemmour declared publicly that Putin would never invade, then defended him once he did. Since then, Zemmour has spoken out against the invasion, signaling a shift in his support for Putin.
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