After a US general raised eyebrows with a paper predicting war in two years, a leading Republican in the US Congress claims the likelihood of conflict with China over Taiwan "is quite high."
General Mike Minihan, who is in charge of the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its about 110,000 soldiers on February 1 but just made it public on Friday, saying, "My instinct tells me we will fight in 2025."
I hope he is mistaken," said Michael McCaul, the incoming head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US House of Representatives, to Fox News on Sunday. But I believe he is correct.
The concerns expressed at the highest echelons of the US military about a potential Chinese move to establish control over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, are not those of the Pentagon but rather those of General Minihan.
In 2024, there will be presidential elections in the US and Taiwan, which could present a chance for China to launch a military operation, Minihan wrote.If China is unable to conquer Taiwan peacefully, "they are going to consider a military invasion, in my opinion. McCaul stated, "We have to be ready for this.
Because of the botched US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which increased the likelihood of war with China, he charged that the Democratic administration led by President Joe Biden was portraying weakness.
The likelihood of a conflict involving China, Taiwan, and the Indo-Pacific region is very high, according to McCaul."Highly improbable"
Minihan's evaluation was rejected by Representative Adam Smith, the leading Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.
War with China is "not just not inevitable, it is exceedingly unlikely," according to Smith on Fox News Sunday. China is currently in a very hazardous situation. However, I believe generals should use extreme caution when declaring that war is unavoidable.
The US must be able to prevent China from attacking Taiwan militarily, but Smith added, "I'm totally sure we can avoid that conflict if we adopt the correct approach."
Prior to this month, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressed his skepticism regarding the notion that increased Chinese military action in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait portended Beijing's impending invasion of the island.A Pentagon spokeswoman claimed on Saturday that the general's remarks were "not indicative of the department's perspective on China."
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