(CNN)Despite rising tensions prior to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's anticipated trip to Taiwan, neither the United States nor China have overt interests in their emerging superpower rivalry spilling over into outright military confrontations.Despite this, the conflict centers on the problem that has the most chance of starting a future US-China conflict. Furthermore, if Pelosi's trip happens, it will very certainly lead to increased relationship instability, which will increase the likelihood of future conflict.
The California Democrat's furious Chinese warnings to stay away and Washington's resolute refusal to be intimidated, meantime, demonstrate how enraged political forces in each country may make it nearly difficult to manage the most important geopolitical conflict in history.As part of her Asian tour, Pelosi is anticipated to make the first visit by a House speaker to Taiwan in 25 years, according to top Taiwanese and US government officials who spoke to CNN on Monday. Despite extreme threats from Beijing of retaliation and consequences, the longtime opponent of the Chinese communist government and its alleged violations of human rights would travel to Taipei.
This is the most dangerous game of bluff over Taiwan in decades because to her position, the new circumstances brought about by Chinese leader Xi Jinping's nationalistic reign, as well as Beijing's growing assertiveness and military and strategic power.
The question now is how Beijing will react given the indications that Pelosi is determined to go. Following a bombardment of threats and propaganda that generated hopes for its riposte, the majority of its options are rather worrisome. Given that China has already been sending an extraordinary number of its jets into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, most observers believe that some sort of military display is probable. Although China's actions could not immediately endanger US naval forces in the region, they could increase the likelihood of errors and raise questions about how Taiwan would react to significant provocations.
How could Pelosi leave?
Then why would Pelosi go, and would her visit pointlessly enrage the government of China?It is crucial for the speaker to show support for Taiwan and to demonstrate that Washington is serious about its legal obligation to provide the island with the means of its self-defense, according to supporters of the visit, who, unusually, include a large number of Republicans standing behind Pelosi. Pelosi represents democracy, a way of life that Taipei is desperately trying to protect from China's authoritarian influence.
But the debate is not only in Taiwan. This relates to a larger context in which China is posing a threat to American resolve to uphold democracy, Western values, and military and economic hegemony in the Pacific and around the globe.Pelosi's refusal to go after Beijing's warnings that she shouldn't became politically impossible as word of her anticipated visit emerged, both domestically and for strategic reasons. Giving up on her goal would be difficult for Pelosi to accept after a political career that was largely characterized by defying China. Additionally, it would convey that the United States would yield in one of its first standoffs with a major competitor in the Pacific who had just grown more self-assured.
Biden was also guided by political factors. Although he acknowledged in public that the US military was concerned about the visit, he was unable to publicly support China over Pelosi. And even if authorities worked to inform the speaker of all the potential repercussions of her decision, it is unlikely that a President could instruct one of the highest representatives of another body of government on what she should and should not do.
Politics also influences China's behavior.
Although many people in the West frequently perceive China's communist leadership as being monolithic, politics also flare up within the Chinese politburo. Aggressive nationalism and the notion that Taiwan's fate is "reunification" with the mainland served as the foundation for Xi's rise to power. He is resolved to lead a national renewal that will erase China's previous humiliation due to colonialism and its protracted isolation during the 20th century when it did not exercise what he believes to be its proper influence in the world.
Pelosi's anticipated trip is therefore more than just a dig at China; it also represents a personal affront against Xi's central initiative by one of the most senior US leaders, and as such, it calls for political retaliation.
Additionally, the issue occurs at a crucial time for Beijing. Xi is poised to win an extraordinary third term in a few months, and he cannot afford to be perceived as weak. Along with a faltering economy and his government's dubious management of the Covid-19 pandemic (mass lockdowns are still occurring in Chinese cities), Xi may be inclined to take a nationalistic stance in order to hide internal problems.long-standing conflict
Although the current standoff is concerning, Taiwan has long been a source of friction between the US and China. Complex diplomatic agreements and subtle US strategic doctrines intended to prevent the prospect of war with China add further complexity to the dispute.
Beijing sees the island as a legitimate component of its territory. The People's Republic of China on the mainland is seen by the United States as being the only legal government in China, and Taiwan is not considered to be a separate country. However, it rejects the Chinese Communist Party's assertion that the democratic island is under its control. Washington has adopted a policy of purposeful ambiguity over whether it would defend Taiwan itself, in part to prevent a declaration of independence from Taipei and to make Beijing's leaders reconsider an aggressive takeover of the island. Washington does, however, provide Taiwan with the means of self defense when it purchases US-made weapons.An eventual Chinese retaliation, such as an intrusion into Taiwanese airspace, according to Robert Daly, a former US diplomat in Beijing, would likely not result in conflict but would bring the rivals closer to a dangerous area.
According to Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center, "it will set up a new baseline that takes us slightly closer to conflict," CNN's Pamela Brown reported.
"I don't believe that we will engage in conflict this time, but I also don't believe that our relationship with Beijing will be any better or worse a week from now than it is now."
Why Biden is concerned about the journey
China's expanding power in Asia and beyond has been the focus of Biden's reorganization of US foreign policy. Washington believed that by enticing the then-reclusive China into the global economy, it might advance political liberalization and lead it into the Western-oriented global economic and political system. This was the hope thirty years ago. Beijing, however, has worked to create a political and economic value system that is distinct from that of the US and its allies by using its growing military and political influence.
But Biden also wants to control this new rivalry so that it does not lead to war between the Pacific's growing power (China) and the region's established power (the United States and its allies).In a phone conversation with XI last week, the US president emphasized that neither the essential character of US-China relations nor the White House's stance on Taiwan had changed. However, when viewed from Beijing, Biden's recent repeated declarations that the US will defend Taiwan—all of which were afterwards retracted by aides—might have given the appearance that he is not being earnest.China is also keeping an eye on a growing effort among congressional hawks to have Washington alter its policy of "strategic ambiguity" over its intentions should China attack Taiwan with a straightforward declaration that it will protect the island.
According to some observers, such a change could not only put the United States at risk of being dragged into an unprepared Pacific conflict with China, but it could also make Beijing even more aggressive. Or that the assurance of a US shield may encourage a Taiwanese independence movement, forcing China to back down and bringing a wider military battle over the island closer.
Prior to Pelosi's scheduled visit, administration officials issued public statements reiterating the fact that US policy had not changed and reaffirming her right to go while also raising the prospect of a tense few weeks in the event that China responds in any way.
"The rhetoric coming from China has no justification. There is no justification for taking any action. John Kirby, the White House's strategic communications coordinator for the National Security Council, claimed on CNN's "New Day" that congressional leaders frequently visit Taiwan "last Monday.
"Neither that language nor those potential actions should scare us as a nation."
Zhang Jun, China's ambassador to the UN, reiterated his earlier warnings in a new statement on Monday, saying that China's military would not "sit by quietly" as Pelosi visited, and that her visit would have "egregious political consequences."
In Washington, it is assumed that Xi and Biden share the same lack of interest in a direct military confrontation. However, he is more powerful than earlier Chinese leaders. Additionally, the Chinese military has a strong nationalist character and is becoming more confident in its capabilities.
Therefore, assuming assumptions about how China would react to Pelosi's visit based on its actions in previous crises that have already passed could lead to an unpleasant surprise for the US.
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