President Joe Biden will visit South Korea and Japan, but make no mistake: China is the focus of this week's Asia trip.
Despite the fact that he'll be arriving on friendly soil, Trump's first trip to Asia as president has high stakes: he needs to persuade partners to form a long-term security and economic alliance to counter China's expanding regional power.Biden will use his four-day trip, which starts Friday in Seoul and ends in Tokyo, to mobilize support for his anti-China Indo-Pacific Strategy and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which he will unveil in Japan. The visit comes after a similar presentation to Southeast Asian leaders during the US-ASEAN Special Summit last week.
It's a slightly delayed bid for regional clout from a White House that came into office prepared to focus on China as the world's leading threat. However, attention has been drawn to the collapse of Afghanistan and a ground conflict in Europe over the past year.
Beijing plainly perceives the administration's Asia shift as a threat. "China opposes the establishment of bloc-antagonism or separatist confrontation in the Asia-Pacific area," Liu Pengyu, the Chinese embassy's spokeswoman in Washington, D.C., told POLITICO. In a phone chat with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged him to "avoid the possibility of a new Cold War, and to resist conflict between the two camps."
In a phone chat to Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi on Wednesday, Wang took a harder stance. "According to Wang Yi, the Japanese side will soon convene a summit of the 'Quadrilateral Mechanism' with the United States, Japan, India, and Australia." The so-called Japan-US collaborative attempt to challenge China has been prevalent before the US leader has made the trip, which is cause for alarm and vigilance, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement.
China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, protested to Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, on Wednesday that "the United States side has used a series of improper statements and actions to interfere in China's internal affairs and hurt China's interests." According to Chinese state news agency Xinhua, Yang warned that "China will take firm action to preserve its sovereignty and security interests."
Beijing is not comforted by the White House's messaging around the visit.
"The message we're trying to send on this trip is an affirmative vision of what the world can look like if the world's democracies and open societies come together to shape the rules of the road, define the region's security architecture, and reinforce strong, powerful historic alliances," Sullivan said on Wednesday. "We believe that message will be heard everywhere, including Beijing," said the group.
Biden's success is predicated on his vision of a revitalized US alliance with regional partners alarmed by China's increasingly assertive military stance. The president also hopes that North Korea's escalating nuclear threat would help to ease tensions between Seoul and Tokyo. The White House also hopes to utilize public outrage over Russia's invasion of Ukraine to force India to break its long-standing alliance with Moscow.
"These two weeks of Asia talks are a tremendous signal to an important portion of the world that we haven't forgotten about them," said James A. Kelly, former assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. "But progress on economic problems is what will really count," said Kelly. "China has become an economic monster, but it also has that wolf warrior diplomacy, and it kicks the hell out of any middle-sized nation that opposes it, so there is a significant [US] role in security and economics in the Indo-Pacific."
Biden's trip's success — or failure — hinges on his ability to negotiate five crucial challenges:The enmity between Seoul and Tokyo
Fostering tight cooperation among US allies and partners, particularly Japan and South Korea, is a fundamental component of Biden's Indo-Pacific policy.
It's easier said than done, though. Trade tensions, geographical conflicts, and historical grudges stemming from Japan's colonial domination of South Korea from 1910 to 1945 have strained bilateral relations in recent years. South Korea was enraged when Japan removed it from a list of preferred business partners in 2019, prompting Kim Hyun-chong, then-South Korean deputy national security adviser, to accuse former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of associating South Korea with a "hostile nation." Although Kim and Abe, as well as the administrations in which they served, are no longer in power, bilateral difficulties persist.
Biden must persuade both South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that their deteriorating relations jeopardize his Indo-Pacific plan. "It would be a fantastic opportunity for President Biden to recognize that the region's so-called historical debate difficulties have turned into security threats… leading to diplomatic impasse," said Alexis Dudden, a history professor at the University of Connecticut.
Last week, Yoon and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi promised to mend the ties. A rapid cure, though, is improbable.
Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), a former US ambassador to Japan, told POLITICO, "I'm not overly optimistic because I've been watching this relationship for decades and when things get tough domestically, it's often easy to revive these tensions as a means to unify political will within a given country."
Defending against North Korea's nuclear danger
Yoon would persuade Biden to place tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea under US command, a component of his campaign platform that has so far been ignored by Washington. In September, Mark Lambert, the US deputy assistant secretary of state for Japan and Korea, stated, "US policy would not support that."
The United States stationed tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula for decades before withdrawing them in 1991 as a deterrent to North Korea's fledgling nuclear weapons program. Since then, the United States has used its nuclear submarine fleet to prevent North Korean aggression.
The intensification of North Korea's measures may force a change of heart. So far this year, Pyongyang has tested 14 potentially nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. More testing are on the way.
"Our intelligence indicates that there is a genuine risk of another missile test, including a long-range missile test, or a nuclear test, or both, in the days leading up to or following the President's trip." "We're planning for every contingency, including the likelihood of such a provocation when we're in Korea or Japan," Sullivan added. "Obviously, we're prepared to make short- and long-term adjustments to our military posture as needed to ensure that we're providing both defense and deterrence to our partners in the region, as well as responding to any North Korean provocations," he said.
Both North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned last month that if South Korean forces attacked, they would respond with nuclear weapons or possibly launch a preemptive nuclear assault.
"What the Kim siblings appear to be doing is following Putin's lead and normalizing the right to threaten nuclear war and strike first with nuclear weapons," said Sung-Yoon Lee, a Korean studies professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School. "The South Koreans will flog the idea of rotating U.S. [nuclear] assets in South Korea or its proximity, i.e., Japan, on the premise that the present quo simply emboldens North Korea to extort and coerce the South, further pushing the Kim regime toward betting on a Russia-style invasion."Unless North Korean threats escalate dramatically, Biden is unlikely to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean peninsula. Instead, Biden will try to allay Yoon's fears by granting his request for more Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, anti-missile systems to confront North Korea's missile threat, a move that will infuriate both Pyongyang and Beijing.
The Quad with South Korea
Biden's journey will culminate in a meeting of the leaders of the Quad, an informal geopolitical organization made up of the US, India, Australia, and Japan that aims to confront China's growing economic, diplomatic, and military clout in the Indo-Pacific. Yoon will try to reach an accord on one of his election promises about China: a move toward Quad membership for South Korea.
Even if South Korea does not become a full member of the Quad, its participation will help Biden achieve his goal of bringing Tokyo and Seoul closer together.
"We want to improve relations [between Japan and] South Korea," Kelly added, "and getting South Korea more involved in the Quad will help with that." "They can be invited to join in on [Quad] working group meetings or be observers – there are a variety of low-key ways to accomplish that."
Seoul's appeal to join the Quad may be sweetened by a promise of South Korean support for Taiwan's defense against Chinese invasion. "I believe Yoon will try to appease Biden by stating he wants to join the Quad and will back the US on Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues… and perhaps even give armaments and humanitarian aid to Ukraine," Lee added.
Taiwan is keeping a close eye on South Korea's progress toward Quad membership in the hopes of joining the organization as well. "We have indicated interest in some of the areas that the Quad covers, including as global health and vaccinations, artificial intelligence, space technology, and research [partnership]," Taiwan's official ambassador to the US, Hsiao Bi-khim, told POLITICO. "We also understand that the Quad will remain within the current membership at this time, but we would welcome any opportunity to engage with Quad members."Biden will formally unveil the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, his major regional trade project, in Tokyo, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo revealed this week. "I've spent a lot of time talking to our Indo-Pacific rivals, and they all want the US to be more present and have a strong economic policy." "This is about that," Raimondo told reporters.
Because of the initiative's ambiguous scope and goal, it has prompted suspicion. According to the minimal specifics disclosed by the administration, member countries will be able to opt into obligations on supply chains, digital regulation, sustainable energy, and taxes. The agreement will not provide additional market access as is customary, and it is unclear whether it will include the necessary enforcement procedures. To persuade potential participants of the IPEF's usefulness, Biden will have to specify the carrots that will be provided.
Since November, Biden's Cabinet has been touring the region to drum up support for the deal. The initial launch will likely include Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. According to Ted Osius, president of the US-ASEAN Business Council, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines are among the Southeast Asian states most likely to participate in the negotiations.
Biden's framework is a response to rival regional trade agreements, none of which his government wants to join. The United States earlier withdrew from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a global agreement that China is now attempting to join. It also refuses to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which comprises the ten ASEAN nations, as well as Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and China.
However, the White House has yet to reveal which countries will take part in the IPEF talks. This has spurred concern about whether other difficult trading partners such as India, Vietnam, or possibly Taiwan may be invited to the table.
The self-governing island has high aspirations for IPEF membership and has taken Secretary of State Antony Blinken's word for it that the US will not prevent it from joining. "Taiwan has expressed interest in being a part of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework…. Blinken has stated that no one would be left out, so we recognize this to be a dynamic process," Hsiao added.
However, support for the IPEF among Southeast Asian countries critical to US economic and national security interests in the region is shaky. Even countries that choose to take part in the negotiations that begin during Biden's visit may not sign the final accord. This has raised questions about whether the framework can deliver the economic boost that Biden administration officials have promised, prompting industry organizations, US politicians, and trading partners to call on the government to do more. The details of the project will be revealed by Biden, which will either allay or exacerbate such fears.
"There's a huge chance to take that Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and put a sector-specific free trade deal in place that a number of our friends might accede to, and that could be a very strong starting point for continuing to develop our [regional] economic connections," Hagerty said.
India's Quad involvement is becoming more intense.
Deepening engagement with India has been designated as one of the Indo-Pacific Strategy's ten "key lines of activity" by Biden.
"A desire to engage more profoundly with each other is brewing between the US and Europe."India. "There's a recognition that India is a swing state in this new context, and that it is in all of our best interests to try to work with India over time to bend its trajectory more toward the West," Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council's Indo-Pacific coordinator, said at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event last week.
Given India's decades-long alliance with Russia, which is based on Moscow's role as New Delhi's top weapons supplier, this is a difficult task. Bloomberg reported Tuesday that the Biden administration is attempting to counter Russian influence by selling armaments to India worth up to $500 million. Another irritant is Prime Minister Narendra Modi's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"This makes India an outlier," Alison Szalwinski, vice president of research at the National Bureau of Asian Research, said. "This posture has the potential to produce tension in the [Quad] if not managed appropriately."
The Biden administration is unconcerned about this. "We hope that this summit will demonstrate that democracies can deliver in both substance and vision, and that these four nations working together will defend and promote the principles of a free and open Indo-Pacific," Sullivan said.
Biden has an edge because India-China ties have deteriorated when a simmering border issue exploded in hand-to-hand fighting in the disputed Galwan Valley in 2020, killing 20 Indian troops. Beijing added salt to the wound by naming a soldier who was involved in the incident as a torch bearer for the 2022 Beijing Winter Games, which will take place in February. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India's foreign minister, informed his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in March that a "normal relationship" is impossible until China withdraws its soldiers from the border region.
"The Quad is mainly 'political deterrence' against China for India, but not a 'tactical weapon,'" Rajiv Rajan, associate professor of international politics at Shanghai University's College of Liberal Arts, stated. "However, if India-China tensions in the region worsen and border confrontations increase, it would not be surprising if New Delhi views it as tactical."
Biden's national security team will argue that his Asia trip has no specific goals and that he merely wants to strengthen ties among friends and communicate the United States' clear economic and security commitment to the area. That alone is highly symbolic in the face of mounting public outrage over China's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its threats against Taiwan.
Biden can claim victory in laying the groundwork for a new US-led regional bulwark against China's growing influence and its "no limits" partnership with Russia if he can return to Washington with a verbal commitment from Yoon on participation in the Quad and expressions of interest in IPEF membership from Seoul, Tokyo, New Delhi, and Canberra.
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