According to four sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments, the US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin may be willing to take more aggressive action against the US, including ramping up his attempts to meddle in American elections in retaliation for the US's support for Ukraine.
According to the sources, this might entail direct attacks on US election infrastructure, as well as a wide range of other options.
According to the sources, there is no evidence that Putin has decided to intervene in upcoming elections or that he has chosen candidates. Because voting systems in the United States are so dispersed and fragmented, attempting hacks on voting infrastructure would be difficult.
However, intelligence experts believe Putin may now be willing to go farther than earlier attempts at interfering with states' voting systems, preferring instead to order scans of voter registration databases and run influence campaigns to cast doubt on elections' legitimacy."As we apply pressure and Ukraine applies pressure, he'll undoubtedly widen the alternatives he considers," a source briefed on intelligence assessments said. "So, what's the worst that might happen? There was no genuine resolution to that, in my opinion. It's just a thought experiment on a variety of topics."
One of the options, according to a source familiar with the intelligence, may be "directly striking election infrastructure," suggesting "a change in Putin's risk tolerance, as we saw with his invasion of Ukraine."The conclusions were not based on direct intelligence, according to a US official.
"We have no concrete intelligence indicating Russia is planning to target state, local, or election systems in a more direct manner than before, but we are prepared for the possibility. As we obtain new intelligence regarding heightened threats, we will continue to actively share it with state and local officials "CNN was informed by a senior official.According to CNN sources involved with internal talks, the intelligence community has prioritized understanding Putin's thinking since the invasion began. Raw assessments have pointed to his increasingly unpredictable behavior, and US officials believe his anger over Russia's failures in Ukraine has made him more willing to consider taking risks, which his advisers, who officials claim have not been telling him the whole truth, did not prepare him for.
Putin may use US backing for Ukraine as a pretext to meddle in US elections, according to the Associated Press on Saturday.
According to another US person involved with the briefing, lawmakers were informed last week by intelligence officials on Putin's calculus on potential influence activities.
According to the US official, if Putin shifts his focus away from Ukraine and toward doing harm on other countries, the US midterm elections this year might be a target for Russian operatives. The 2016 and 2020 elections were also targeted by Russian actors.
According to the official, the briefing did not imply that the Russian government would target US elections, but rather that elections are one of several areas that the Russian government may target for influence operations in response to the war in Ukraine."If Putin feels cornered, he may shift his cyber resources in any number of directions," the US official said, noting that officials are on high alert because of the upcoming US midterm elections.
While tampering with voter tallies would be tough for Russia, another source pointed out that Russia would just need to change a few votes "to call into question the entire voting process."
Another insider speculated that even if Russian hacking attempts had no effect on the outcome, spreading chaos and distrust in voting systems could be enough of a success.
The Director of National Intelligence declined to comment when questioned about the assessments.In a statement to CNN, ODNI spokesman Nicole de Haay said: "Our Election Threats Executive continues to lead the Intelligence Community's activities against foreign threats to US elections."
Russia could have more than just elections on its agenda. The US government has begun to issue warnings about the risk of a Russian attack on key infrastructure in the United States, asking private sector owners and operators to be ready.
"All businesses, all critical infrastructure owners and operators, as the President stated, must assume that disruptive cyber activity is something the Russians are thinking about, preparing for, and exploring options," Jen Easterly, director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, told CNN late last month.
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